What’s more, the time put into these peace processes - which in Sudan’s case amounted to decades - is spent by the armed groups amassing political and military power. If they are pressed into signing an agreement, there are typically very few effective mechanisms to hold them to it. The effects of such misbegotten efforts, in the wreckage in Khartoum, are plain to see.Īrmed groups and dictatorial regimes know that as long as they are participating in a peace process, international pressures will eventually - often quickly - ebb. And it often doesn’t even lead to short-term peace. Yet the problem is that conflict resolution focused on signing peace agreements that split power between armed groups - no matter how many provisions on political reforms are added - rarely leads to sustainable peace. When conflict did not end in Sudan after the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which marked the end of two decades of civil conflict, the international community fell into a familiar pattern of never-ending peace negotiations, rotating through different facilitators, in which the armed belligerents were brought to various international locations to negotiate for concessions that might lead to an end to the violence. But the problems stretch back much further. These are indeed likely factors in the violence. Others have pointed to a broader “ global power struggle” that has reportedly led foreign actors such as Russia, the Gulf States, Egypt and even the Wagner Group to support or build ties with either Hamdan or al-Burhan, who are currently fighting for control of Sudan. al-Bashir’s dictatorial regime in 2019 were too weak and too disorganized to compete with the armed militias. Analysts have noted that the movements that helped overthrow Mr. Tensions that had been on the rise for months between the two military leaders finally exploded against the pressure of a looming deadline to hand power back to a civilian government. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who heads the Sudanese Army, had joined forces to remove President Omar Hassan al-Bashir from office in 2019 following a pro-democracy popular uprising, and continued their alliance as they jointly led a military coup in late 2021, removing the (at least nominally) civilian-led transitional government. Mohamed Hamdan, known as Hemeti - battles the army for control of Sudan’s capital.Īfter violence erupted last Saturday, many pointed to the fact that Sudan is still merely four fitful years into building a civilian-led government after decades of military rule. At least 413 people have been killed and millions trapped without food, water or electricity, while a former Janjaweed militia - the Rapid Support Forces led by Lt. Khartoum has been wracked with violence for nearly a week.

Between the Dances by Jacqueline Dinan